The Strait of Hormuz Is Closing and Ian Bremmer Says Markets Aren't Even Sweating Yet

Let's not bury the lede: Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face U.S. strikes on Iranian power plants. Iran responded by firing missiles that injured over 150 people in southern Israel and launching a ballistic missile at a U.S.-U.K. base nearly 4,000 kilometers away — which, by the way, is more than triple Iran's previously claimed 1,200 km range. Surprise!

Bloomberg's Ian Bremmer dropped the ice-cold take everyone needed: this conflict is not priced into markets yet. The S&P 500 has already broken below its 200-day moving average on both daily and weekly charts for the first time this year — a signal The Traveling Trader is calling a once-in-a-decade setup, with tech and financials now cheaper than Liberation Day lows. Meanwhile, United Airlines is warning about fuel costs at $175/barrel, BTC slid below $70,000, and equities just posted their fourth straight losing week. The Israeli Ambassador isn't mincing words either: if Iran had nuclear-tipped missiles, oil hits $250/barrel and global shipping becomes a hostage situation.

Roughly 20% of U.S.-bound oil and 80% of global oil passes through Hormuz — so when Graham Stephan is already mad about a $9 Big Mac, just wait until he sees what $250 oil does to the value menu.