The Semi Bubble That Won't Pop (Yet): $MU Is 170% Above Its 200-Day and Nobody's Blinking

Let's set the scene: $MU has more than doubled since end of March, its data center revenue mix exploded from 15% to 65%, and earnings expectations are up 6-8x. $QCOM ripped 8.5% in a single session. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up ~70% since its March 30th low. Bloomberg, CNBC, and Seeking Alpha are all covering it — and the consensus is somewhere between 'justified by AI fundamentals' and 'someone call Michael Burry's therapist.'

Because here's the catch: while 7 names account for 70% of S&P 500 returns, only 49% of S&P 500 components are above their own 50-day moving averages — the fewest in 30 years of data, per BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky. Eight percent of S&P names are hitting 52-week lows while the index hits 52-week highs, tying the all-time record set in late 1999. Banks are cracking, consumer stocks are MIA, and healthcare is basically in witness protection.

Dan Niles on CNBC is still bullish — he notes the Nasdaq ran 109% in the first three years of the internet era, and agentic AI requires 10-100x more compute than chatbots, which keeps the chip demand story structurally intact. But Strategas' Chris Verrone is flagging SK Hynix doubling in 18 trading sessions as mania-level. Both can be right — bubbles are fun until they're not, and this one apparently has room left on the tank.