The $4 Trillion IPO Tsunami: SPCX, OpenAI & Anthropic Are About to Drain the Market Pool

Let's talk about the elephant in the room that has its own rocket company. SpaceX filed its S-1 publicly on Nasdaq under $SPCX, targeting a raise of up to $75 billion at a valuation north of $2 trillion — making it the largest IPO in US history. Goldman Sachs leads a 23-bank underwriting syndicate, and BlackRock is already circling. Meanwhile, OpenAI is filing confidentially for a ~$1 trillion valuation, and Anthropic is eyeing October at $900 billion–$1 trillion. That's potentially $4 trillion in new paper hitting markets in rapid succession, and Bloomberg is politely asking whether the liquidity actually exists to absorb all three.

Fundstrat dropped a deeply uncomfortable data point: Paul Tudor Jones spotted the 1999 top by watching massive IPOs followed by lockup expirations 90 days later. Approximately $2 trillion in SpaceX stock unlocks 90 days post-IPO. Tom Lee is bullish — S&P 7,700 by year-end 2026 — but even he flagged mid-year turbulence. On the $NVDA front, the Bloomberg and CNBC creator consensus is essentially: great quarter, muted reaction, zero China revenue baked in, and Jensen Huang literally told investors to 'expect nothing' from China while Huawei has its best year ever. The irony writes itself.

The creators largely agree the AI infrastructure buildout is real and durable — hyperscalers raised capex to $700 billion+, Anthropic is on pace for its first profitable quarter — but the IPO calendar is giving everyone 1999 flashbacks, and nobody wants to be the last one holding the bag at the lockup expiration party.