SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic: $4 Trillion Worth of IPOs Are Coming — Is the Market Ready or Toast?

Let's start with the elephant in the room wearing a rocket suit: $SPCX (SpaceX) filed its S-1 this week targeting a valuation north of $2 trillion and an offering as large as $75 billion — potentially the largest IPO in US history. Meanwhile, OpenAI is quietly lining up a confidential filing at a ~$1 trillion valuation, and Anthropic is eyeing an October debut at $900B–$1T. Tom Lee at Fundstrat is calling it a $4 trillion IPO wave. Fundstrat's bull case: software stocks at 15-year relative lows, S&P target of 7,700 by year-end. The bear case, per a Fundstrat video referencing Paul Tudor Jones: he called the 1999 top by watching massive IPOs plus lockup expirations — and roughly 90 days after SpaceX lists, an estimated $2 trillion in stock becomes freely tradable. History doesn't repeat, but it does retweet.

Meanwhile, $NVDA did what Nvidia does — beat estimates with a $91B Q2 revenue guide (vs. $87B consensus), dropped an $80 billion buyback, raised its dividend 25x, and got a collective 'is that it?' from markets. CEO Jensen Huang explicitly told investors to expect nothing from China H200 sales and called Huawei 'very, very strong.' Gross margins are back at 75%. The stock's underperformance relative to its fundamentals is, per Huang himself, 'one of the mysteries of the universe.' Honestly, same. On the macro side, the 30-year Treasury hit 5.18% — its highest since before the 2008 financial crisis — with Fed minutes confirming officials are leaning hawkish if inflation persists. The bond market is screaming; equity markets are doing the 'this is fine' meme with the Dow at a record 50,316.

The week's sleeper hit? $MU (Micron) is quant-ranked the #1 stock in the entire market per Seeking Alpha, up 151% YTD vs Nvidia's 20%, trading at a PE of 11.7x with 90% revenue growth and 412% EPS growth YoY. Sometimes the best trade is the one nobody's talking about at the SpaceX roadshow.