Powell Holds, Middle East Burns, and Oil Just Hit $100 — Welcome to the Fed's Worst Nightmare

The Federal Reserve held rates unchanged 11-1 on Wednesday, and if you thought that would calm anyone down, you have clearly not been watching the news. Oil surged to nearly $100/barrel — up roughly 3.75% — as Iran strikes hammered Gulf energy infrastructure, Tehran warned Gulf energy sites to evacuate, and the Strait of Hormuz started trending for all the wrong reasons. The Dow dropped 768 points and the Nasdaq shed 327. The vibe? Chaotic.

Bloomberg's cross-asset guru Michael Purves flagged on YouTube that crude oil's correlation to the VIX and high-yield spreads is sitting in the top 2% of readings over the past decade. That's not a warning light — that's the entire dashboard on fire. Meanwhile the Fed revised PCE inflation to 2.7% from 2.4% while somehow also nudging GDP higher, a combo that analysts called 'internally inconsistent,' which is a very polite way of saying it makes no sense. Powell's baseline: tariff-driven inflation is transitory. History's verdict on that word: lol.

If the 1970s stagflation playbook is on the table — and Bloomberg's Big Take said quietly and clearly that it is — then the Fed just showed up to a knife fight holding a 'wait and see' sign. $CF is up over 60% year-to-date and even took a Mizuho downgrade in stride, closing up 2.7%. $STZ caught a Citi upgrade and popped 3%. $M beat earnings and jumped 4.8%. Somewhere in the chaos, people still need beer, fertilizer, and a Macy's sale — and honestly, same.