Oil at $112, S&P Below 200-Day, and Wall Street's Portfolio is on Fire — Weekly Sentiment Roundup
From the Strait of Hormuz to your 401(k), this week's sentiment data reads like a disaster movie script — with oil stocks as the only survivors
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCL CARNIVAL CORP | sell | $24.30 | — | — | — |
| NKE NIKE, Inc. | hold | $51.16 | — | — | — |
| BYND BEYOND MEAT, INC. | sell | $0.64 | — | — | — |
| HAL HALLIBURTON CO | buy | $40.50 | — | — | — |
| META Meta Platforms, Inc. | hold | $520.20 | — | — | — |
| CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | hold | $368.41 | — | — | — |
| CRSP CRISPR Therapeutics AG | hold | $45.40 | — | — | — |
| APA APA Corp | buy | $44.56 | — | — | — |
| NVDA NVIDIA CORP | hold | $166.59 | — | — | — |
| MSFT MICROSOFT CORP | hold | $356.15 | — | — | — |
Let's call this week what it was: a controlled demolition of the 'diversified portfolio.' With Brent crude closing above $112/barrel and WTI at $98.70, the Iran conflict — now entering week five — isn't background noise anymore. It's the entire soundtrack. The S&P 500 fell below its 200-day moving average, the Nasdaq entered correction territory, and Jim Cramer on CNBC was practically begging people to buy oil stocks and ditch tech. When Cramer is right, you know things are bad.
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed — only 2-5 vessels per day vs. a normal 130 — with Iran charging up to $2 million per voyage for select passage. ~20,000 seafarers are stranded on ~2,000 vessels. $CCL cut its profit outlook on surging fuel costs and is down more than 20% YTD. $NKE reports Tuesday with China sales expected down 16% and a 7.6% implied options move — a coin flip in a hurricane. $BYND is also reporting amid accounting concerns, which is Beyond Meat's way of saying 'please don't look too closely.'
The only bright spots in sentiment this week? $HAL getting a JP Morgan price target bump to $40, and SpaceX quietly filing for a $75 billion IPO with a rumored 30% retail allocation — Elon giving the people what they want, apparently. Meanwhile, TIPS breakevens are screaming 5% short-term inflation, Treasuries aren't acting like a safe haven, and the Fed is being set up to look bad no matter what it does. As one analyst put it: the oil shock is the bear market, and the bear market is the oil shock.