The Strait of Hormuz Has Been Closed 82 Days — And Your July 4th Road Trip Is About to Cost You
Social sentiment this week was dominated by Iran-Hormuz tension, broadening AI plays, and a SpaceX IPO that's somehow already losing money
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA NVIDIA CORP | buy | $217.22 | — | — | — |
| MSFT MICROSOFT CORP | buy | $419.27 | — | — | — |
| META Meta Platforms, Inc. | buy | $610.23 | — | — | — |
| AMZN AMAZON COM INC | buy | $267.85 | — | — | — |
| GOOGL Alphabet Inc. | hold | $385.59 | — | — | — |
| TSM TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO LTD | buy | $411.34 | — | — | — |
| USO United States Oil Fund, LP | buy | $136.31 | — | — | — |
| RR RICHTECH ROBOTICS INC. | buy | $2.68 | — | — | — |
| WLDN Willdan Group, Inc. | hold | $93.88 | — | — | — |
Eighty-two days. That's how long the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, and the social sentiment machine is running hot on the consequences. National average gas prices are barreling toward $5/gallon by July 4th — California is already at $6 — and Bloomberg's podcast feed basically became an Iran ceasefire liveblog. The deal framework being floated (60-day ceasefire, Hormuz reopens toll-free, Iran sells oil again) sounds great until you read that the Ayatollah said Tehran will not hand over its highly enriched uranium. Cool, totally resolved then.
Meanwhile, the AI trade is the loudest conversation on YouTube this week — and it's shifting. Fundstrat is pointing out that sentiment indicators like the Michigan survey are near lows even as markets hit all-time highs, which historically is not what a market top looks like. The Traveling Trader went full "this is your last chance" energy, comparing the current AI infrastructure build-out to 1995 NASDAQ but backed by $700B+ in real capex from $NVDA, $MSFT, $META, $AMZN, and $GOOGL. The broadening thesis — photonics, analog chips, optical networking — is getting serious YouTube airtime.
$SPCE... wait, wrong space company. SpaceX filed its IPO prospectus targeting a $2 trillion valuation while its launch business is currently unprofitable — but Starlink is the real story, growing subscribers and revenue consistently. If the market prices this on Starlink plus an AI pivot narrative, that $2T number will have plenty of believers. Pope Leo XIV is writing an encyclical about AI. At this point, if your investment thesis doesn't include a papal bull, are you even trying?