$USO, $GLD, $SPXS: The Middle East Is On Fire and Your Portfolio Isn't Ready
With 20,000 seafarers stranded near Hormuz and fertilizer costs up 90%, the market's 'wait and see' crowd is running out of time
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO United States Oil Fund, LP | buy | $124.20 | — | — | — |
| GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST | buy | $414.70 | — | — | — |
| MOS MOSAIC CO | buy | $24.76 | — | — | — |
| CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | buy | $137.11 | — | — | — |
| AAL American Airlines Group Inc. | sell | $10.29 | — | — | — |
| RCL ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD | hold | $261.08 | — | — | — |
| NFLX NETFLIX INC | hold | $92.74 | — | — | — |
Let's not sugarcoat it: Brent crude closed above $112/barrel Friday, the S&P 500 is down over 7% in five weeks, the Nasdaq is in correction territory, and roughly 20,000 seafarers are stranded on ~2,000 vessels near a mostly-closed Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg's own podcasts are using phrases like 'worst week in four years.' The vibes are, shall we say, not great.
Social sentiment is bifurcating hard. YouTube's doom-and-gloom crowd — led by channels like Jeremiah Babe — is screaming $150-$200 oil and pointing to the dollar's reserve share hitting a 31-year low of 56.8%. Bloomberg's more measured coverage confirms the structural stress: Saudi pipelines offsetting some Hormuz supply, but only some. Meanwhile an Illinois farmer just watched his fertilizer bill jump from $11,000 to $21,000 in two weeks — which means $MOS and $CF are about to have a very interesting earnings call. $GLD sentiment across Reddit and X is the most bullish it's been since March 2020.
SpaceX's confidential IPO filing is the one shiny object distracting retail investors from the chaos — but even that story got complicated by its xAI merger. When the most exciting 'buy' thesis of the week is a company that isn't even public yet, that tells you everything about where we are.