Strait of Hormuz, SpaceX IPO, and AI Data Center Rage: The Market Has Too Many Storylines Right Now
Iran negotiations, mega-cap IPO pipelines, and AI infrastructure backlash are converging into one very complicated market moment
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM EXXON MOBIL CORP | buy | $155.01 | — | — | — |
| CVX CHEVRON CORP | buy | $191.74 | — | — | — |
| EQNR EQUINOR ASA | hold | $38.90 | — | — | — |
| NVDA NVIDIA CORP | buy | $214.30 | — | — | — |
| GOOGL Alphabet Inc. | hold | $382.25 | — | — | — |
| AMZN AMAZON COM INC | hold | $265.40 | — | — | — |
| MSFT MICROSOFT CORP | hold | $417.79 | — | — | — |
| CRM Salesforce, Inc. | sell | $179.67 | — | — | — |
| DELL Dell Technologies Inc. | hold | $294.90 | — | — | — |
| ANF ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO /DE/ | hold | $76.03 | — | — | — |
Let's set the scene: the Strait of Hormuz is barely open, gas prices are approaching four-year highs with analysts flagging $5/gallon by July 4th and $6 by Labor Day, and Secretary of State Rubio is in India talking energy security with Modi. Energy markets are basically one tweet away from a full existential crisis. Fundstrat's read that oil prices aren't yet reflecting true supply tightness suggests the pain at the pump could get worse before it gets better — which is not great news for consumers, but quietly bullish for domestic producers still on the ticker board.
Meanwhile, the AI bull market is having a very public identity crisis. Bloomberg's IBD crew is calling this cycle stronger than dot-com because Nvidia and friends actually make money — fair point. But The Economist dropped back-to-back pieces on AI data center backlash: Maine voted to ban new hyperscale data centers, Ireland's data centers now consume 30% of national electricity (up from 5% in 2015), and Utah's referendum could kill a project twice the size of Manhattan. The infrastructure buildout powering this bull market is quietly becoming a political liability.
And then there's SpaceX filing a prospectus — which, in today's post-Sarbanes-Oxley, class-action-lawyer-lurking IPO environment, means we're probably 18 months from anything actually trading. SEC Chair Paul Atkins is trying to grease the wheels, and a new Texas Stock Exchange is apparently a thing now. The mega-cap IPO pipeline is real, but patience is the only position available right now.