$SPCX files, $OPENAI is next, and Paul Tudor Jones is having flashbacks to 1999

Let's set the scene: the Dow is up 645 points, oil dropped from $108 to $98 on Iran peace hopes, and Wall Street is about to get hit with the largest IPO supercycle in history. SpaceX filed publicly for Nasdaq under $SPCX targeting a $2 trillion valuation and up to $75 billion raised — with 23 banks on the cover and BlackRock already circling like a very well-dressed vulture. OpenAI is reportedly filing confidentially this week, targeting a $1 trillion valuation with Goldman and Morgan Stanley. Tom Lee of Fundstrat is waving a $4 trillion IPO wave flag and calling for S&P 7,700 by end of 2026.

But here's the plot twist nobody wants: April Fed minutes just dropped and they are not vibing with the bull case. A majority of officials are open to rate hikes if inflation persists, many want to scrap the easing bias entirely, and there's a 43% chance of a hike this year. Meanwhile, Fundstrat's own research flags that roughly $2 trillion in SpaceX lockup shares become freely tradable ~90 days post-IPO — the exact playbook Paul Tudor Jones used to call the 1999 top. Nvidia's $91 billion Q3 forecast came in fine but the stock still dropped 2.6% after hours, utility stocks like $CEG and $VST are ripping on power grid upgrades, and Hormuz won't be flowing normally for at least four months even if peace breaks out tomorrow.

The market is throwing the most lavish dinner party in years — and the Fed just showed up with a bill.