Oil at $110, Fed Reset Incoming, and the IPO Wave That Could Reshape Your Portfolio — The Market Has a Lot Going On

Let's set the scene: WTI crude is knocking on $110/barrel as Iran floats a permanent Strait of Hormuz toll system and Trump responds with a naval blockade claim. Bloomberg is reporting Iran has destroyed nearly $1 billion worth of US Reaper drones. Oil above $100 is no longer a tail risk — it's the base case, and every consumer-facing stock from $KR to $WMT is feeling it. Walmart's CFO literally used the phrase 'K-shaped economy' on an earnings call, noting average fill-ups have dropped below 10 gallons. That's not a data point — that's a vibe.

Meanwhile, incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is proposing a full regime change: shrink the $6.7 trillion balance sheet, kill the dot plot, cut meetings from 8 to 4 annually, and make Fed independence 'earned.' Markets are starting to price this in, which explains why Peter Tchir at Academy Securities thinks the bond market has another leg higher in yields. Corporate credit over Treasuries is the trade du jour among large allocators — make of that what you will.

The IPO pipeline is the wildest it's been in years: SpaceX filed its S-1 at a ~$1.5 trillion valuation on $18.7B in 2024 revenue, OpenAI is racing to go public by September, and Anthropic just posted its first profitable quarter. Tom Lee at Fundstrat calls this a generational wealth tailwind for equity owners — the K-shaped economy's top half is about to get a serious upgrade. $SPOT jumped 6% on bold 2030 targets (1 billion users, $100B revenue, 40% gross margins), and $XOM is fighting proxy giants Glass Lewis and ISS over its Texas reincorporation with a 'Strong Buy' quant rating and an A+ profitability grade backing it up. If this market is sick, it's got great bloodwork.