NVDA Earnings Eve: Semis Are Rallying and Retail Is Holding Its Breath
With the 30-year yield at its highest since 2007 and Nvidia reporting tomorrow, retail traders are caught between macro dread and AI euphoria
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Let's set the scene: the 30-year Treasury yield topped 5.18% — its highest since before the 2008 financial crisis — the S&P 500 dropped 49 points, the Dow shed 322, and China quietly dumped Treasuries down to $652.3B, the lowest since 2008. Classic 'everything is fine' energy. And yet, retail traders are laser-focused on one thing: $NVDA earnings.
Here's the plot twist nobody asked for: while chipmakers fell for a third straight session ahead of the print, the Philadelphia SOX index actually flipped green, led by $MU (+5.8%), $INTC (+3.6%), and $TXN (+1.4%). Seeking Alpha's quant crowd is screaming that Micron — trading at a jaw-dropping PE of 11.69x with 412% EPS growth YoY — is the real AI sleeper, up 151% YTD versus Nvidia's comparatively modest 20% gain. Meanwhile, over at CNBC, Nancy Tengler is trimming $GOOGL not because she hates it, but because it got too big for its britches in her portfolio — calling it 'fully valued' after its best MAG7 YTD run.
Sentiment is basically: bullish on AI, terrified of bonds, and slightly too confident for a market sitting on a 5.18% 30-year. That's the retail trader experience in one sentence.