New Fed Chair, Record Highs, and a Cookout That Costs More Than Your Car Payment: Welcome to Summer 2026

In a move that somehow made both bulls and bond traders nervous, Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the 17th Federal Reserve Chair this week — and Wall Street celebrated by sending the Dow up 600 points to 50,702 and the S&P 500 to a new all-time record. Trump said he wants Warsh to be 'totally independent,' which is exactly what someone says when they want the opposite. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Waller made clear the next rate move is just as likely to be a hike as a cut — a sentence that would have been unthinkable eight weeks ago.

The macro backdrop is genuinely wild. Oil is at ~$96/barrel, up roughly 50% since the Iran conflict began, consumer sentiment just hit an all-time low of 44.8 (yes, all-time, going back to the 1970s), and one-year inflation expectations surged to 4.8% — the highest since the Reagan administration. The Strait of Hormuz situation has Rapidan Energy flagging recession risk on par with 2008-2009 if it drags through August. On the bright side, Lenovo surged 20% on AI earnings, dragging $DELL and $HPQ up with it, and $TTWO confirmed a GTA 6 release date, which honestly might be the most reliable economic stimulus this quarter.

Your Memorial Day cookout is the perfect microcosm: steaks up 16%, ground beef up 14.5%, hot dogs up 11% — but hey, chicken's slightly down. The market's partying like it's 1999 while the consumer is eating cheaper poultry and pretending everything's fine. Mood.