Macy's Is Eating Saks' Lunch and the Chart Shows It — But Can the Iran War Spoil the Party?

Let's start with the plot twist nobody expected: $M is up over 7% pre-market and Bloomingdale's just posted 10% comp sales growth in Q4. Turns out when your biggest competitors file for bankruptcy (looking at you, Saks and Neiman Marcus), gravity-defying luxury shoppers have to shop somewhere. Middle and higher-income households are still spending freely, and Macy's is basically running a charity drive for displaced Neiman customers.

Meanwhile, $LULU is what happens when a brand has identity issues and a leadership vacuum at the same time. Americas net revenue is down 4%, full-year guidance whiffed, and the company still has no permanent CEO. Bloomberg Intelligence called it 'dead money' without a permanent CEO — that's the kind of analyst note that doesn't make it to the holiday party invite list. The stock bounced 3% anyway because retail traders love a wounded gazelle.

The macro wallpaper for all of this? Every single CFO is now citing the Iran war and tariffs as headwinds — it's the 2026 version of 'supply chain issues' and it's already exhausting. With Brent crude above $109/barrel and the Strait of Hormuz playing geopolitical Jenga, expect guidance to stay murky until someone blinks. Macy's is a trade, Lululemon is a prayer, and the rest of retail is just vibes in a flak jacket.