Hormuz or Bust: Oil Traders Are Sweating Through Their Polo Shirts as Iran Threatens to Slam Shut the World's Most Important Waterway

The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of the world's oil supply, and Iran just threatened to close it entirely if Trump follows through on ultimatums targeting Iranian energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco's CEO quietly pulled out of a major international energy conference — which, as vibes go, is roughly equivalent to the captain leaving the bridge mid-storm. Oil is whipsawing, the dollar is surging on haven demand, and Asia shares are already sliding heading into Monday's open.

Social sentiment is loud and directional. Bloomberg Podcasts' coverage confirms a proposed 60-day ceasefire exists but remains unresolved — with Iran pushing a Hormuz toll system the US refuses to accept. PCE inflation is tracking toward 4% in April, a full percentage point higher than February, the biggest two-month jump since late 2021. Gas is at $4.51/gallon and Americans dropped $2 billion more on fuel this Memorial Day weekend versus last year. Treasury Secretary Bessent says the US has 'plenty of funds' for an Iran war — which is the kind of reassurance that makes markets more nervous, not less.

Energy bulls are licking their chops. Everyone else is just watching the Hormuz countdown clock tick.