Hormuz or Bust: Oil Markets Brace for Monday as Iran Threatens to Shut the World's Most Important Waterway

Let's not bury the lede: Iran's Revolutionary Guards have threatened to completely close the Strait of Hormuz if Trump follows through on his ultimatum against Iranian energy infrastructure. That's roughly 20% of global oil supply flowing through a choke point that's suddenly looking very chokeable. Saudi Aramco's CEO quietly pulled out of a major international energy conference over the weekend — which, as far as canaries in coal mines go, is a pretty loud one.

The macro picture is a mess of contradictions right now. Oil is whipsawing — war risk premiums are pushing prices up, but the prospect of eased Iran sanctions is simultaneously pulling them back down. Reuters reports the dollar is catching a safe-haven bid, Asia shares are sliding, and UK PM Starmer called an emergency economic meeting. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Bessent told reporters the US has "plenty" of funds for an Iran war, which is exactly the kind of confidence-inspiring statement that makes bond traders reach for antacids.

Boeing got a headline-grabbing 200-jet order from China out of Trump's Beijing summit — but Bloomberg had been floating 500 jets as the pre-trip expectation. Half the candy is still a win, but the market already knew about Cisco's networking supercycle and Cerebras' monster $5.55B IPO opening at $350 a share. The AI trade doesn't care about geopolitics until it suddenly does — and this weekend gave it plenty of reasons to start caring.