Hormuz or Bust: Oil Hits $99 and Social Media Is Losing Its Mind
Iran threatens to close the world's most important oil chokepoint, WTI tops $99, and traders are watching Monday open like it owes them money
Ticker Ratings
The Middle East did not take the weekend off. Iran's Revolutionary Guards have threatened to completely close the Strait of Hormuz if Trump follows through on energy facility threats — and with WTI already topping $99/barrel and Brent nudging $106, markets are pricing in exactly zero good outcomes right now. Saudi Aramco's CEO reportedly pulled out of a major international energy conference because of the conflict. That's the kind of detail that doesn't show up in a headline but absolutely shows up in an oil chart.
Bloomberg Surveillance's Paul Sankey is calling $6/gallon national average gas this summer — think $8-9 in California — with refiners already pivoting to jet fuel over gasoline and alkylate supply getting squeezed. Meanwhile the Fed is quietly reconsidering its rate-cut timeline as energy inflation threatens to get sticky all over again. The bond market noticed first, as it always does.
Dollar up, Asian equities sliding, UK PM Starmer calling emergency economic meetings — the vibes are bad and the data is catching up. Every energy trade that looked crowded last month now looks prescient.