Let's start with the elephant in the shipping lane: the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since late February, with 800+ vessels trapped in the Persian Gulf and Goldman Sachs' Jared Cohen saying on CNBC that a full reopening is unlikely unless the Iranian regime collapses. That's not a hedge — that's a structural supply shock. Oil is grinding higher, $P&G is already flagging a ~$1 billion commodity cost headwind with oil at $100/barrel, and diesel and LNG are tightening faster than gasoline. Energy majors like $BP, $SHEL, and $TTE are suddenly looking very interesting.
Meanwhile, in a completely different universe, $INTC just posted EPS of $0.29 vs. estimates of $0.01, revenue guidance of $13.8–$14.8B against Wall Street's $13B expectation, and is now up 121% YTD — with the US government as its third-largest investor. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is on an 18-day winning streak, and Dan Niles, who called the CPU resurgence in March, says agentic AI workflows are the catalyst. Separately, $GOOGL is reportedly investing up to $40 billion in Anthropic at a $350B valuation — a steep discount to secondary market chatter of $800B — while $AMZN is also deepening its Anthropic stake. The AI infrastructure buildout isn't slowing; it's compounding.
The market is basically two movies playing simultaneously: a geopolitical thriller with closed shipping lanes and drone warfare reshaping energy forever, and a sci-fi blockbuster where every tech giant is panic-buying AI at any price. Peter Boockvar's warning about complacency after an unprecedented SOX rally deserves respect — but try telling that to the guy who held $INTC since April.
