Gas at $5, Hormuz Still Shut, Warsh Just Got Sworn In — Welcome to the Wildest Week in Markets
Bond yields at 20-year highs, a new Fed chair, an Ebola outbreak, and SpaceX going public — this week had everything except chill
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTWO TAKE TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE INC | buy | $227.79 | — | — | — |
| CRM Salesforce, Inc. | sell | $179.67 | — | — | — |
| WDAY Workday, Inc. | buy | $127.75 | — | — | — |
| ZM Zoom Communications, Inc. | hold | $105.40 | — | — | — |
| INTU INTUIT INC. | sell | $318.50 | — | — | — |
| EL ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC | buy | $88.35 | — | — | — |
| HON HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC | hold | $228.25 | — | — | — |
| FUTU Futu Holdings Ltd | sell | $89.74 | — | — | — |
| HOOD Robinhood Markets, Inc. | hold | $73.32 | — | — | — |
Let's just do a quick inventory of what happened this week: the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for 82 days, oil is sitting near $96/barrel (up ~50% since the war started), national gas prices are threatening $5/gallon by July 4th, and Rapidan Energy Group is floating recession comparisons to 2008-2009 if Hormuz stays shut through August. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment hit an all-time low. Stocks rallied anyway. Classic.
On the macro front, Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the 17th Fed Chair, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller immediately ruined the party by saying a rate hike is now as likely as a cut — bond traders fully priced one in. PCE is expected to print at ~3.8% year-over-year, giving the Fed exactly zero reason to move dovish. Fundstrat flagged that traditional inflation surveys are increasingly unreliable, with alternative measures like Trueflation tracking 7.9 million products painting a messier picture than the official numbers.
SpaceX filed its IPO prospectus targeting a jaw-dropping $2 trillion valuation — despite its launch business being unprofitable. The real story is Starlink, which is actually making money. Meanwhile, $LNVGY (Lenovo) posted $21.6B in revenue with AI sales up 84%, lighting a fire under the whole PC sector. $INTU cratered 20% on TurboTax deceleration. $TTWO confirmed GTA 6 is coming and suddenly everyone remembered they own the stock. Korea is quietly becoming a shareholder-rights story worth watching — but that's a whole other article. The bond market is screaming; whether equities are listening is another question entirely.