FedEx Earnings Are Thursday and Retail Traders Are Actually Bullish — Here's Why That's Interesting

Let's set the scene: the Strait of Hormuz is partially closed, oil is screaming higher, the IEA is raiding emergency stockpiles, and somehow $FDX is up 24% year-to-date heading into Thursday's print. The company already raised its full-year adjusted EPS floor to $17.80 and bumped revenue growth guidance to 5–6% — but there's a catch. About $600M in second-half headwinds are lurking, including $265M in higher variable compensation. So yes, it's a vibe, but it's a complicated vibe.

Meanwhile, $M (Macy's) is down 22% this year with sentiment firmly in the dumpster. Bloomberg's YouTube coverage flagged bearish positioning heading in — and in a world where consumers are staring down $3.60 gas prices and mortgage rates flirting with 6.41%, discretionary retail is basically a haunted house right now. Speaking of haunted: $LULU also reports this week, but after getting singed recently, even the bulls are keeping their distance.

The real wildcard is what Middle East escalation does to logistics costs — fuel surcharges don't care about your raised guidance, and neither does a closed Hormuz strait. FedEx might have just become the most geopolitically sensitive parcel on your watchlist.