Everything Is Breaking at Once — and the Bond Market Is the Smoke Alarm
Oil near $97, bond yields at 20-year highs, a brand new Fed chair, and the stock market is somehow throwing a party
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DELL Dell Technologies Inc. | hold | $294.90 | — | — | — |
| QCOM QUALCOMM INC/DE | buy | $237.24 | — | — | — |
| INTU INTUIT INC. | sell | $318.50 | — | — | — |
| STLA Stellantis N.V. | buy | $7.61 | — | — | — |
| SPCE Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc | sell | $3.26 | — | — | — |
| CRM Salesforce, Inc. | sell | $179.67 | — | — | — |
| HON HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC | hold | $228.25 | — | — | — |
Let's set the scene: the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for 82 days, oil is flirting with $97/barrel, national average gas prices are heading toward $5/gallon by July 4th (California is already at $6 and simply vibing), and the US PCE inflation gauge is expected to print a spicy 0.4% month-on-month, pushing year-on-year to ~3.8%. The 30-year Treasury yield just hit its highest level in nearly 20 years. Meanwhile, the Dow is up 300 points. Sure, why not.
The macro backdrop is genuinely unhinged. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was just sworn in — and his welcome gift is a Fed that can't cut, a bond market in revolt, and Fed Governor Waller openly saying rate hikes are back on the table. Consumer sentiment cratered to a record low of 44.8 while equities continue their dignity-free melt-up. $DELL is up 135% year-to-date on AI server demand. $QCOM surged 12% on its Stellantis deal. Elsewhere, Intuit's stock dropped 19% after cutting 17% of its workforce to chase AI — a move that says the quiet part loud about where every tech dollar is going.
The bond market has officially become the adult in the room — it's just that nobody at the equity party can hear it over the $DELL and $QCOM celebration playlist. When yields are screaming and consumer sentiment is at record lows while gas approaches $6, the disconnect doesn't resolve itself quietly.